Causal Econometrics, DoubleML & Monte Carlo Boardroom Simulation
Resvanta Decision Studio (`decision.resvanta.com`) replaces correlational BI dashboards with structural causal inference and stochastic capital simulation. CFOs, Chief Economists, and Strategy teams use orthogonalized Double Machine Learning (DoubleML), Synthetic Control, and 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo war-games to isolate true incremental ROI before committing capital.
The 60-Second Boardroom Command Dashboard & Personalization Engine
Every live session opens on Tab 00—translating all 108 RAIL econometric proofs into role-specific fiduciary scorecards, a 9-step CFO revenue waterfall, a live Cost-of-Inaction delay scrubber, and a 3-altitude explanation toggle.
Net 36-month bottom-line profit unlocked by bundling +$15/mo with 80% SLA support and suppressing Sleeping Dogs.
CFO Revenue Leakage & Value Creation Waterfall
Simpson's Paradox & Regime Break X-Ray
Standard BI averages hide lethal enterprise attrition behind high-volume SMB accounts. Click Activate Subgroup X-Ray above to split by tier.
4 Built-In Governance & Execution Drawers on Every Card
Why Predictive ML and BI Dashboards Fail When You Change Policy or Price
Standard BI charts attribute seasonal demand spikes or macro tailwinds to marketing spend or price discounts, leading executives to over-allocate millions into non-incremental channels.
Static Excel forecasts present a single deterministic revenue number while hiding tail-risk (Value-at-Risk / Conditional VaR) when elasticity or competitor response shifts.
RDS strips out high-dimensional confounders via DoubleML, runs automated placebo refutation gates, and simulates 10,000 stochastic trajectories to bound downside risk.
How Decision Studio Verifies Counterfactual Impact
Structural Causal Graph & Confounder Isolation
Define treatment variables (e.g., price change, regional promo, sales headcount), outcome KPIs, and observed confounders from CSV/Parquet or warehouse tables.
DoubleML, Synthetic Control & DiD Estimators
Estimates Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) across customer segments while partialling out nuisance parameters.
Placebo Permutation & Unobserved Confounder Stress Tests
Runs random common-cause injection, placebo treatment permutation, and subset validation. If an estimate fails refutation, RDS flags the model as unidentifiable rather than emitting a false uplift number.
Stochastic P10 / P50 / P90 & CVaR Boardroom Scenarios
Propagates parameter uncertainty across 10,000 Monte Carlo draws to generate P10/P50/P90 EBITDA distributions and exportable boardroom decision ledgers.
Implemented Estimators, Validation Benchmarks & Identification Limits
- • Causal Estimators: Partially Linear Regression (PLR) and Interactive Regression Model (IRM) DoubleML, Synthetic Control, Difference-in-Differences (DiD), and Propensity Score Matching.
- • Stochastic Simulation: 10,000-iteration vectorized Monte Carlo engine computing P10/P50/P90 percentiles, Value-at-Risk (VaR 95%), and Conditional VaR.
- • Refutation Suite: Placebo treatment replacement, random common-cause addition, data subset stability, and Rosenbaum bounds sensitivity.
- • Simulation Latency Benchmark (Oct 2026 Internal Validation, n = 20 datasets): Evaluated across n = 20 panel datasets (100k to 1M rows, 15–40 covariates). 10,000 Monte Carlo draws complete in median 2.8 seconds (IQR: 1.9–4.1s).
- • Positivity & Unobserved Confounding Boundary: Observational causal estimators cannot recover true causal effects if historical treatment assignment was 100% deterministic (zero overlap) or driven by unmeasured off-system shocks. In those cases, RDS halts observational estimation and designs a minimum-variance geo-holdout experiment.
500,000 CACR/yr, 1,000 ECC/yr, 8 Sealed 16:9 Board Dossiers/yr, and 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation workspace (30-Day PoV / PE CDD Sprint Pass at US$4,500 — 100% credited within 60 days).
2,500,000 CACR/yr, 5,000 ECC/yr, 108 RAIL econometric verification checks, OSFI E-23 & Fed SR 11-7 governance packs, and 1M Gaussian Copula Zero-PII synthetic rows/yr.
Partner Franchise ($48k / $82k / $125k Base + Wholesale Blocks) or Sovereign VPC at US$280,000/yr (Option 1 Client Self-Hosted BYOC) | US$310,000/yr (Option 2 Resvanta-Managed Single-Tenant VPC).